Compound Probability

August 15, 2010 at 3:16 am 4 comments

When I told my friend AJ that I had written a book of math jokes, he asked me a question that I found difficult to answer. He asked, “How many will I laugh at?” I paused for a second. Hearing my hesitation, he asked, “Are the jokes really that bad?”

“Well, no,” I explained. “I’m just not sure how many you’ll get.”

AJ is not a dumb guy. He’s quite intelligent, actually. He can hold his own in a conversation with just about anyone on nearly any topic. But some of the jokes in Math Jokes 4 Mathy Folks require some advanced understanding of mathematics. Thinking about his question further, I derived the following formula (though not while I was drinking… I never drink and derive):

P(L) = P(G) × P(F|G)

where…

  • P(L) is the probability of laughing;
  • P(G) is the probability that you get the joke; and,
  • P(F|G) is the probability that you’ll think a joke is funny, if you get it.

The question, of course, is how you determine the values for P(G) and P(F|G). Based on absolutely no data whatsoever, I offer the following:

  • P(G) = 0.99, if you have a degree in mathematics;
  • P(G) = 0.95, if you completed a high school calculus or statistics course;
  • P(G) = 0.68, if you completed the minimum high school requirements in mathematics;
  • P(G) = 0.51, if you were reasonably successful in mathematics through middle school;
  • P(G) = 0.32, if you were okay until your teachers started using words like denominator and irrational;
  • P(G) = 0.03, if you’re a professional athlete;
  • P(G) = 0.02, if you’re a member of my extended family (who hate math, aren’t good at it, and are proud to trumpet both facts to anyone willing to listen);
  • P(G) = 0.01, if you’re a journalist or other member of the popular media (and possibly lower, if you write for a tabloid).

Of course, I’m egotistical enough to believe that P(F|G) = 1.

So, how many jokes will AJ laugh at? I don’t know. But with over 400 jokes in Math Jokes 4 Mathy Folks, there’s got to be a few that he’ll find funny, right?

Anyway, here’s a joke involving compound probability:

When a respected statistician passed through the security check at an airport, a bomb was discovered in his carry-on luggage. “Come with us,” said the security guards, and they took him to a room for interrogation.

“I can explain,” the statistician said. “You see, the probability of a bomb being on a plane is 1/1000. That’s quite high, if you think about it — so high, in fact, that I wouldn’t have any peace of mind on a flight.”

“And what does that have to do with you carrying a bomb on board?” asked a guard.

“Well, the probability of one bomb being on my plane is 1/1000, but the chance of there being two bombs on my plane is only 1/1,000,000. So if I bring a bomb, the likelihood of there being another bomb on the plane is very, very low.”

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Reap What You Sow National Tell a Joke Day

4 Comments Add your own

  • 1. NOE  |  September 28, 2012 at 1:39 pm

    I LOVE JOKES

    Reply
  • 2. NOE  |  September 28, 2012 at 1:42 pm

    Reply
  • 3. Shawn McIvor  |  November 7, 2013 at 10:39 pm

    I thought it was funny that the odds of getting the joke were directly associated with standard deviation of a normal probability distribution. One standard deviation is within 68% etc lol

    Reply
    • 4. venneblock  |  November 8, 2013 at 8:47 pm

      Yep, I’m a pretty funny guy, Shawn! Thanks for catching the inside joke.

      Reply

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About MJ4MF

The Math Jokes 4 Mathy Folks blog is an online extension to the book Math Jokes 4 Mathy Folks. The blog contains jokes submitted by readers, new jokes discovered by the author, details about speaking appearances and workshops, and other random bits of information that might be interesting to the strange folks who like math jokes.

MJ4MF (offline version)

Math Jokes 4 Mathy Folks is available from Amazon, Borders, Barnes & Noble, NCTM, Robert D. Reed Publishers, and other purveyors of exceptional literature.

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